Chicago Weather Forecast (O'Hare Official) 2:18 pm CDT Oct 11, 2017 with Forecast Discussion

This Afternoon: Cloudy, with a high near 60. Northeast wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy, with a low around 53. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: Cloudy, with a high near 61. East wind around 5 mph becoming south southeast in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 53. South southeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 60.

Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66.

Sunday Night: A slight chance of showers before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 61.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 47.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 66.

Amf Ohare IL
 41.98°N 87.9°W

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National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
GO Current Forecast Discussion


242 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017


Through Thursday...

The system responsible for last night`s rain is lifting away from the region.  Any lingering showers should come to an end through the afternoon today, but an expansive area of low stratus will remain in place through tonight and likely, through tomorrow as well.  Latest forecast sounding suggest that some drier air will overspread the nearly saturated lower levels late tonight and tomorrow, bring a chance for some patchy drizzle and for for the late night into early morning hours.  The blanket of stratus will also limit the diurnal temperature trends with temps topping out today in the low 60s. Lows tonight are expected to be in the low to middle 50s, but highs tomorrow should only be a couple degrees higher than today, reaching only the low 60s.



Thursday night through Wednesday...

Main concern in the extended is multiple rounds of rain Friday night into Sunday. After an above average end to this week, next week starts with more seasonal temperatures and a slow warm u Pthrough mid week.

Dry weather is expected Friday as the upper level ridge hangs over the region. Warm air advection will also result in high temps in the low to mid 70s. Cloud cover will play a big part in how efficiently we warm Friday with more cloud cover leading to cooler temps. Precip forms to our north and west along an upper level vorticity streamer Friday evening. Showers and a couple of embedded thunderstorms spread across the region Friday night.

A surface low surges from northwest Missouri to Quebec Saturday afternoon to Sunday afternoon. The low`s warm front lifts through the region Saturday bringing another surge of warm air. High temps will range from the low 70s along the IL/WI state line to around 80 south of I-80.

Morning showers dissipate, but I`m expecting scattered afternoon showers to form within the  warm sector. GFS suggests CAPE and shear values that could support strong to maybe severe storms. Similar to many systems lately, CAPE will be the limiting factor for severe storms. PWATs will be well above average at around 2 inches, and this much liquid could lead to heavy rain. The line of showers and storms pushes east of the forecast area Sunday morning or early afternoon along with the low`s cold front.

Northwest winds and a push of cooler air follow the front with highs Sunday in the 60s. Sunday night looks particularly blustery as a secondary upper level trough and cold pool spread across the region. Wind gusts around 25 MPH are possible. Lows in the low to mid 40s are expected. The upper level trough should only produce precip over the lake early next week.

The dry period continues through mid next week under high pressure. Temps also climb into the upper 60s by mid week as well.



.AVIATION... For the 18Z TAFs...

Main forecast concerns for the period are cigs, any lingering shra and the potential for fog late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

A widespread deck of ifr-mvfr cigs will remain over the region as nely flow on the swrn periphery of a slowly lifting upper low persists through tonight and tomorrow. There has been some diurnal improvement to cigs this afternoon, with many locations lifting to lower end mvfr, but expect that this improvement will be brief and cigs should lower again to widespread ifr toward sunset. Latest cig guidance suggests that cigs in some locations could lower to lifr, but expect that ORD/MDW will likely remain at 500 ft or above, with DPA/RFD/GYY possibly seeing cigs lower to less than 500 ft. Latest radar imagery indicates some sct shra lingering over nern IL/nwrn IN in nely-enely flow. Any lingering shra should end early this afternoon as the main upper low continues to lift to the northeast. A ridge of high pressure building across the region overnight tonight should allow winds to drop off the generally lgt/vrbl. With the diminishing winds will come a chance for fog development in the very moist air mass in place. Drier air spreading in aloft over the nearly saturated lower levels could bring some patchy drizzle overnight as well. As the high moves to the east tomorrow and a trough of low pressure moves out across the nrn/cntrl Plains, winds will trend to more sely tomorrow and cigs should improve to mvfr through the day, though a bkn-ovc cig should persist through the day.



Kept current Small Craft Advisory as is as winds and waves will slowly subside through tonight.

Low pressure over Ohio weakens as it continues east, and high pressure spreads over the Great Lakes this evening. East winds diminish this evening and veer to southwest by Thursday night. A stationary front over the southern end of the lake Friday night will lead to north winds to the north of the front and southerly winds to the south of the front.

The next surface low forms over northwest Missouri Saturday afternoon. The low`s warm front surges two thirds up the lake before the low passes over the lake Saturday evening/night. Wind gusts up to 30 kt are expected. Winds become north to northwest behind the cold front and gales are expected Sunday.

High pressure spreads over the Great Lakes Sunday night and then passes south of the lakes Monday night. West to southwest winds 10-20 kt are expected early to mid next week.



.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 5 AM Thursday.

     Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 11 PM      Wednesday.

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