Tonight: Clear, with a low around 45. Southwest wind around 5 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 48. South southwest wind around 10 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 68. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50.
Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 69.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 72.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72.
Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.
Sunday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.
Amf Ohare IL
41.98°N 87.9°W
Area Forecast Discussion below ad ...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
GO Current Forecast Discussion
ARCHIVED
555 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
.SHORT TERM... 208 AM CDT
Through tonight...
It feels a bit more like autumn this morning with readings in the upper 30s to mid 40s or so. Other than some passing mid clouds this morning, plentiful sunshine will be rule as high pressure becomes established across the Ohio valley. This will be the coolest day of the week, but the southwest winds on the back side of the high will allow temps to recover to around normal, upper 50s to lower 60s. Northwest flow aloft may bring a few passing clouds tonight, otherwise it will be another relatively cool night with readings back in the 40s.
KMD
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.LONG TERM... 208 AM CDT
Tuesday through Sunday...
We re-enter another period of dry and unseasonably warm weather throughout most of the long term as high pressure settles over the upper Tennessee Valley. The ridge axis will extend southwest across Texas and thus prevent moisture from spreading into the midwest, while southwest flow locally will allow for a gradual warming trend to occur throughout the week as southwest winds dominate. A weak front will graze the northern tier of counties on Thursday which will shift winds around to northerly briefly. Otherwise the high will strengthen and build across the eastern third of the county, and in conjunction with low pressure across the plains will act to reinforce the mild southerly flow across the region. Afternoon highs are expected to rise into the upper 60s Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 60s to low 70s Thursday, low 70s Friday, and mid 70s by Saturday. Seasonal highs are typically around 60/low 60s for the early-latter portion of October.
An upper trough is expected to move onshore over the west coast late in the week and spread across the Great Plains and Midwest over the weekend. Surface ridge axis will get shunted farther east out ahead of the wave allowing gulf moisture to flow back up across the plains and Midwest with dew points pooling back around 60F along a cold front. The front is expected to sweep across the local area either late Saturday night or Sunday, with the latter time frame favored at this distance. This still looks to be the next decent chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms in the area, though the t-storm threat appears on the low side as the system is upper level support is rather broad. A bit more fall-like conditions return behind this front.
KMD/Deubelbeiss
&&
.AVIATION... For the 12Z TAFs...
Surface high pressure will dominate across the Central Mississippi Valley through the period. This will result in quiet weather across the region, with a westerly wind. VFR conditions are expected through the period.
KJB
&&
.MARINE... 301 AM CDT
The main weather concern over Lake Michigan this week is the increasing potential for a period of high end southerly gales over the northern half of the lake on Wednesday.
In the near term, northwesterly winds up to 25 kt continue across southern Lake Michigan early this morning, and as of 240 am CDT, waves at 45170 continue to be up over 7 ft. As a result, it is likely that the small craft advisory will have to be extended through the morning hours over the Indiana near shore waters. The winds are expected to ease and back westerly during the day as surface high pressure moves over the Mid Mississippi Valley. So, waves will subside, but it may not be until late this morning, or early this afternoon, that they drop below 4 ft.
The surface high is expected to become extended from the Lower Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic tonight into Tuesday, and will remain dominate here through much of the week. Meanwhile, at least two storm systems of note will shift eastward across Canada through mid to late week. Ultimately, this looks to set up an optimal surface pressure gradient over the lake to support a prolonged period of stout west-southwest winds.
The first storm system, is forecast to reach a modest strength as it shifts towards James Bay Tuesday morning. This system will result in an uptake in the west-southwesterly winds over the lake later today into tonight. However, expect the strongest southwest winds to reside over the northern half of the lake tonight, where 30 to possibly a few 35 kt gales will be likely.
The second storm system is expected to be the main story of the week, however, as it is forecast to be a much more potent area of low pressure. As such, this will set up a very strong gradient over the lake on Wednesday and Wednesday night. During this period high end south-southwesterly gales of 40 to 45 kt will be probable, especially over the northern half of the lake. If forecast guidance continues to advertise this strong storm system, a gale watch will likely be needed in the near future.
KJB
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 10 AM Monday.
MORE BELOW
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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 808 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 171315- Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake Illinois-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane- DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Kankakee-Livingston- Iroquois-Ford-Lake Indiana-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton- 808 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017 /908 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017/
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
River flooding will continue along portions of the Du Page... Des Plaines...Fox and Illinois Rivers.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
River flooding will continue along portions of the Du Page... Des Plaines...Fox and Illinois Rivers through midweek.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.
Flood Advisory National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 819 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
...The Flood Advisory continues for the North Branch Chicago River... North Branch Chicago River at Chicago Albany Ave affecting Cook County
...The Flood Advisory continues for the Des Plaines River... Des Plaines River at River Forest affecting Cook County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...If you encounter a flooded roadway...turn around and find an alternate route.
Additional information can be found at weather.gov/chicago.
&&
ILC031-170100- /O.EXT.KLOT.FL.Y.0175.000000T0000Z-171017T0100Z/ /NBAI2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ 819 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
The Flood Advisory continues for The North Branch Chicago River at Chicago Albany Ave * until this evening. * At 800 AM Monday the stage was 5.5 feet. * Action stage is 5.0 feet. * Flood stage is 7.0 feet. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall.
&&
LAT...LON 4198 8767 4194 8765 4189 8771 4194 8774 4196 8781 4203 8775
$$ ACS
Flood Advisory Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
819 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
...The Flood Advisory continues for the North Branch Chicago River... North Branch Chicago River at Chicago Albany Ave affecting Cook County
...The Flood Advisory continues for the Des Plaines River... Des Plaines River at River Forest affecting Cook County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...If you encounter a flooded roadway...turn around and find an alternate route.
Additional information can be found at weather.gov/chicago.
&&
ILC031-170119- /O.CON.KLOT.FL.Y.0180.000000T0000Z-171017T0300Z/ /RVFI2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ 819 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
The Flood Advisory continues for The Des Plaines River at River Forest * until this evening. * At 800 AM Monday the stage was 13.5 feet. * Action stage is 13.0 feet. * Flood stage is 16.0 feet. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall.
&&
LAT...LON 4196 8790 4197 8780 4187 8777 4186 8787
$$
Flood Warning Flood Statement
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
814 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Illinois...
Des Plaines River near Des Plaines affecting Cook County Des Plaines River at Riverside affecting Cook County Du Page River near Plainfield affecting Will County Du Page River at Shorewood affecting Will County East Branch Du Page River at Bolingbrook affecting Will County Fox River at Dayton affecting La Salle County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...If you encounter a flooded roadway...turn around and find an alternate route.
&&
ILC031-170000- /O.EXT.KLOT.FL.W.0122.000000T0000Z-171017T0000Z/ /DSPI2.1.ER.171015T1012Z.171016T0000Z.171016T1800Z.NO/ 814 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
The Flood Warning continues for The Des Plaines River near Des Plaines. * until this evening. * At 745 AM Monday the stage was 15.5 feet. * Flood stage is 15.0 feet. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this afternoon. * Impact...At 15.5 feet...Water reaches some backyards along Big Bend Drive.
&&
LAT...LON 4212 8784 4196 8780 4196 8790 4212 8794
$$
Flood Warning Flood Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 814 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Illinois...
Des Plaines River near Des Plaines affecting Cook County Des Plaines River at Riverside affecting Cook County Du Page River near Plainfield affecting Will County Du Page River at Shorewood affecting Will County East Branch Du Page River at Bolingbrook affecting Will County Fox River at Dayton affecting La Salle County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...If you encounter a flooded roadway...turn around and find an alternate route.
&&
ILC031-162030- /O.EXT.KLOT.FL.W.0117.000000T0000Z-171016T2030Z/ /RVRI2.2.ER.171015T0416Z.171015T1800Z.171016T1430Z.UU/ 814 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017
The Flood Warning continues for The Des Plaines River at Riverside. * until this afternoon. * At 745 AM Monday the stage was 7.7 feet. * Flood stage is 7.5 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring. * Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this morning. * Impact...At 7.5 feet...Flooding affects forest preserve areas.Minor Flood Stage changed to 7.5 feet 9/24/17.
&&