Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
.UPDATE... Issued at 809 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Just a couple of minor adjustments to the going forecast this evening, primarily to increase sky cover somewhat to account for wildfire smoke aloft, to shift the back door cold front an hour or two earlier on Thursday, and to add haze mention mainly to portions of the IL forecast area Thursday based on HRRR near- surface smoke progs and upstream obs where low-level smoke has been affecting surface visibility.
Weather conditions were fairly quiet across the forecast area this evening, with light mainly easterly low level winds and generally partly cloudy skies. Visible satellite imagery as well as our out the window view does show considerable amount of wildfire smoke aloft however, and upstream surface obs across parts of western WI and central/southern MN indicating visibilities in the 1-4 mile range indicative of smoke closer to the ground. RAP/HRRR near surface smoke forecasts depict this spreading southeast into northern IL by Thursday morning, which is expected to result in hazy/smoky conditions at the surface for a time. This low-level smoke is expected to be pushed out of the region during the afternoon however, as a cold front currently stretched across the upper Midwest accelerates south-southwestward and allows breezy northeast winds to develop. Based on latest high-res model runs, have moved the timing of the cold front up an hour or two across the Chicago metro area into the late- morning/midday period, and have also added areas of haze to our IL counties (front largely prevents if from making it into IN) based on the 18Z HRRR near-surface smoke progs. Have also bumped sky cover grids through the period to account for higher-level smoke as well.
With the slightly earlier frontal passage along the IL Lake Michigan shore, will also move the start time to our Beach Hazard 2-3 hours earlier, due to expected building wave heights with the breezy northeast winds behind the front.
Otherwise, going forecast is in good shape, with falling temps across northeast IL and northwest IN behind the front Thursday, along with a slight chance of a few stray showers/isolated thunderstorms possible ahead of the front. No other changes needed at this time.
Ratzer
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