Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
621 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
.SHORT TERM... Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023
Through Thursday...
Rex Block over eastern North America will continue to control our weather with today and Thursday expected to be repeats of Tuesday`s weather. GOES-16 low and mid level water vapor imagery shows very dry air mass over the region, so should be another sunny day today with temps similar to Tuesday (mid-upper 80s away from the influences of the lake). Once again, deep mixing will result in dewpoints generally on lower end of the guidance spectrum and allow for some gustiness to the winds this afternoon. Given the drought, this will result in an heightened grass/brush fire danger this afternoon.
Spokes of vorticity will continue rotate around the southeastern U.S. closed low. Some guidance does depict some weak convection developing Thursday afternoon over the southeastern 1/2 to 1/3 of our CWA in association with one of the spokes. In general the guidance depicting precip is the same guidance that has been running too high with boundary layer moisture. Given this, have maintained a dry forecast with just "silent 10" percent preci Pchances for Thursday afternoon, siding with the guidance that doesn`t depict precip, which happens to be the models that have also been handling 2m Tds better.
- Izzi
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