Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
613 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023
.SHORT TERM... Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023
Through Tuesday...
A triple-barreled upper-level low over the western Great Lakes will drift eastward to the eastern Great Lakes through Tuesday. Isolated showers early this morning have exited east with the first low over southern Lower Michigan as a secondary low becomes increasingly stretched along eastern Wisconsin. This has yielded sporadic light showers into northeast Illinois as of 3am, with an overall southeastward progression over the next few hours. The final low, and one of most interest, near La Crosse this morning will track through northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana this afternoon in conjunction with peak diurnal heating. Thermo profiles support scattered showers with sufficient CAPE profiles via 6C/km lapse rates to support embedded thunderstorms this afternoon. The overall evolution via guidance and upstream satellite trends indicates a more focused band of showers and storms ahead of the main wave with an overall NNW to SSE track mid to late afternoon. Given a well-mixed boundary layer into mid-30kt winds and modest low-level speed shear, would not by surprised to see some 40-50mph gusts with any strong shower/storm, especially those that congeal into a more cohesive cold pool or linear structure. Otherwise, outside of convection potential, WSW winds gusting to 30 mph will veer NNW behind the wave/showers during the afternoon.
As the main conglomerate of waves around the upper-low drifts east tonight, precip chances will gradually end and lead to a dry day on Tuesday. Persistent NNW winds edging N combined with a neutrally-stable marine boundary layer will allow dangerous waves to grow along the Lake Michigan beaches of Indiana tonight through Tuesday. A Beach Hazards Statement will ultimately be needed beginning around sunrise Tuesday and lasting through Tuesday evening.
Kluber/NWS Chicago
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