Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
0630 AM/1224 PM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023
.SHORT TERM... Issued at 341 AM CDT Mon Jul 3 2023
Through Tuesday...
Much quieter weather conditions are expected for the start of the week and the Independence Day holiday. Only forecast concerns are the potential for afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across our western counties both today and Tuesday, and warmer temperatures in the 80s/around 90.
The slow-moving upper trough which brought localized heavy rainfall and flooding to the region Sunday has shifted east of the area early this morning. Subsidence, indicated by modest mid- level height rises in the wake of the departing trough, will result in weak surface high pressure ridge to drift east over the cwa today. Subsidence will also produce warming mid-level temps, which should help to cap diurnally-driven instability and kee Pmost areas dry. The exception to this may be across our western counties west of the ridge axis where slightly warmer surface temps and deeper low-level moisture may allow an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop during the afternoon. Best chances for such isolated afternoon activity appear to be west of the Fox Valley (and likely more toward the I-39 corridor), but even out there most locations will likely remain dry. Otherwise, expect temperatures to warm back into the mid and upper 80s this afternoon (warmest west) away from Lake Michigan, where a lake breeze will keep temps in the mid-upper 70s. Quiet weather is then expected tonight after any isolated activity dissipates early out west. Some guidance (3km WRF) indicates the low confidence potential for an MCS to develop in the Minneapolis area Tuesday evening, which may propagate southeast into WI overnight before dissipating.
Weak surface high moves east of the region by Tuesday, while low pressure develops over the Plains/upper Midwest in response to an amplifying upper trough over the Canadian prairies and northern Plains. Modest low level southerly return flow develops farther east into the western Lakes, making for warmer and more humid weather for our Independence Day holiday. Increasing low level moisture will support a more weakly capped environment as diurnal instability develops by afternoon, which could again support an isolated shower or thunderstorm threat across parts of northern IL and northwest IN. Again however, coverage is expected to be isolated at this time with little large scale support for more widespread convection development. Thus most areas are expected to remain dry. Temps will be a little warmer Tuesday, with highs expected to reach the upper 80s to low 90s, and with only limited lake cooling along the immediate shore north of Chicago.
Ratzer/NWS Chicago
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