NWS Forecast for O'Hare International Airport Chicago, IL Last Update: 12:41 pm CDT Oct 13, 2024
Hazardous Weather Outlook below forecast ...
Sunday Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Tonight: A slight chance of showers before 8pm, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Columbus Day: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 1pm and 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday Night: A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Low around 41. North northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 54. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Wednesday: Areas of frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 57.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Thursday: Areas of frost before 7am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 45.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 69.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 69.
Sunday Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 65. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Tonight: A slight chance of showers before 8pm, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Columbus Day: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 1pm and 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Monday Night: A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Low around 41. North northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 54. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Wednesday: Areas of frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 57.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37.
Thursday: Areas of frost before 7am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 64.
Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 45.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near 69.
Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 69.
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
902 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
902 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 /1002 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Weather hazards expected...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
DISCUSSION...
Strong northwest wind gusts to 40 mph will continue through
this evening.
Lake effect showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are
possible late tonight near Lake Michigan.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
Monday through Tuesday morning...
Limited Thunderstorm Risk near the lake.
Wednesday Morning And Thursday Morning...
Significant Frost Risk.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.
GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:
Moving toward the southeast at 40 mph.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1250 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong northwest wind gusts to around 40 mph late this afternoon into the evening.
- Lake effect showers are expected downwind of Lake Michigan tonight through Tuesday, including the potential for embedded thunderstorms and waterspouts.
- Frost and localized freeze conditions are likely Tuesday and Wednesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Through Monday:
Recent infrared satellite imagery has shown that the main corridor of moisture has moved well east of the area. There are still a few weak returns showing up on radar, mainly out over the lake and moving over Michigan. Now that the leading edge of the front is moving south of the area, there is little support for additional showers. If anything does develop before daybreak, it will likely be confined closer to the lake near the better moisture convergence and be limited to just a sprinkle or even drizzle.
Sunday morning is looking somewhat nice with drier conditions under partly cloudy skies. Winds will slowly turn from the north to the west up to 15 mph through lunchtime.
By Sunday afternoon, a much stronger cold front will move southeastward over the forecast area as a mid level trough digs down from Canada toward Chicagoland driving much stronger cold air advection over the region. Strong surface wind gusts to 40 mph are expected behind the front this afternoon with locally higher gusts possible. The main uncertainty remains just how deep we mix aloft, which could tap into stronger winds (50+ mph winds at 850mb). It is possible that the region could be flirting with Wind Advisory criteria during the late afternoon and evening hours. For now, the forecast was capped around 40 mph. Lastly, an additional swath of moisture will move down the lake this evening and overnight. Recent model runs have shifted the wave slightly to the east helping to trim PoPs a bit more closer to the lake specifically. With the cold air advection, temperatures at 850 mb will drop to around freezing helping to start the lake effect shower engine over northwestern Indiana. Lake induced ELs will continue to deepen overnight into Monday with over 1000 J/kg of CAPE. There is a slight chance for waterspout development Sunday overnight.
With persistent northwest flow on Monday, lake enhanced showers, the slight chance for waterspouts and even slight chance for thunder was kept in the forecast. The colder air will cap afternoon high temperatures on Monday in the upper 50s for a taste of autumn.
DK
Monday Night through Saturday:
After being confined to northwest Indiana during the daytime hours on Monday, the band of lake effect showers will begin to drift back to the west into northeast Illinois Monday evening in response to another vigorous mid-level wave moving overhead as it rounds the western side of a broad closed upper low. In fact, this feature could support greater coverage of showers (and cloud cover) well inland across northern/northeast Illinois overnight, some of which could bring locally strong wind gusts. Further steepening of mid- level lapse rates and deeper moisture supports maintaining isolated embedded thunderstorm chances near the lakeshore along with the potential for waterspouts over the lake through Tuesday morning. The lake effect band then looks to shift back into northwest Indiana Tuesday afternoon and evening while gradually decreasing in coverage as the upper trough departs to the east.
Due to an anticipated increase in cloud cover and lingering higher winds, the frost potential has decreased markedly Monday night and has been removed for most of the area with this update. As surface high pressure expands across the region Tuesday night, the combination of light winds and clear skies (west of any lingering lake effect showers/clouds) supports temperatures dropping to near and below freezing outside of the urban core of the Chicago metro and away from the lake Tuesday night, and potentially again Wednesday night. Those with outdoor plants should plan to cover or bring them indoors both nights. High temperatures Monday through Wednesday are expected to only warm into the 50s.
Temperatures begin to gradually moderate back to near to slightly above normal later in the week as upper ridging builds back across the region. The upper level pattern remains fairly active with a trailing narrow upper trough moving east across the central CONUS over the weekend which could bring our next chance for precipitation.
Petr
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Main Aviation Concerns:
- NW winds increase this afternoon, turning NNW overnight, gusts in excess of 30-35kts expected.
- Lake effect showers and MVFR ceilings forecast overnight into early Monday morning.
Areas of VFR stratus clouds continue to filter sunshine across northern IL and southern WI heading into the afternoon. A MVFR deck however is sliding through the RFD terminal early this afternoon, with anticipation of this lifting as it tracks eastward towards the metro terminals.
Otherwise, the main impact will be from gusty NW winds this afternoon. Gusts in excess of 30-35kts will be possible as a sharp gradient shift occurs behind a cold front passage. Overnight, winds gradually shift to the NNW, ushering the chance for lake effect showers and MVFR ceilings to drop across the region. Best chances for lake effect showers will be across the metro terminals (ORD, MDW, GYY), with predominate -SHRA anticipated at GYY after 07z. Will continue to carry the PROB30 SHRA for ORD and MDW between 06-11z. MVFR ceilings will prevail across much of northeast IL and northwest IN tonight, before the first wave of this upper low exits the region Monday morning.
Baker
&&
.MARINE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024
Key messages:
- Period of gale force winds expected this afternoon through the overnight.
- Numerous lake effect showers with possible periods of waterspouts tonight through Tuesday.
A strong cold front will shift southeastward across the lake today. In its wake, strong northerly winds will develop and will continue tonight. Gale force winds of 35 to 40 kt are expected with this period of strong winds. A Gale Warning for the Illinois and northwest Indiana nearshore waters has been issued from 3 PM through 7 AM Monday, though there is lower confidence in the exact timing of when the winds will diminish.
A much cooler airmass will shift over the lake in the wake of this strong cold front. This will effectively set the stage for several periods of lake effect rain showers and thunderstorms on the lake tonight through Tuesday. Conditions also may become favorable for at least a couple of periods of waterspouts, particularly tonight into Monday, and again on Tuesday.
DK
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for the IL and IN nearshore
waters.
&&
$$